Tips notalone

(hi, would like someone for correct my fault even if it's just on the summary part, ty :D)

Summary :

1) always have at least 3 possibility to go, and try to have at least 4. Else, since there is some token who limit two adjacent place, you can be stuck easily. And even without these token, he can generally block two third of your possibility. You can say 'Yes, but I can take back all my card if I goes to 1'. Yes that's true, and this have more value when you increase the number of players. But it suggest the others players will play on consequence, which I think will not be the case (or not enough)(see variance more down for more informations).

2) check if someone else have only 2 or 3 place left : if yes, the creature have a lot of chance to goes on his places, so others place are more free.

3) manage your 1 : you should generally only goes for 1 if you have 3 will left and 4/5 cards (for keeping 3/4 card with 1 will if the creature play his main token), or if you have 1 will left. If you want to go for it on others case, it's an all in move. You should check before if someone else (or 2 players with many players) can goes there instead of you with less risk. And if it's usefull. And then decide : if yes, you should let them go there if they want, and if not, you have the possibility to all-in. Doesn't mean you should goes for it, but it's a possibility.

4) As the creature if you want to block 1+another place, you should generally put your main token on 1 since it remove 2 will instead of 1.

5) For early game, 5 is the best power. So the creature have more chance to go there. So 1 is good if it can copy 5. So the creature can goes on 1. So doing 3 can be good for being able to try a 1 or 5 without risk (or both). Problem with 4 is the fairly low effect of the place early on, and the fact there is some token who can be used on both 4+5 and the creature token on 1. So going for 4 can have some side bad effect. Going for 2 let you some tempo for keep all your card second turn, which can be good. As the creature, it's possible too to putting the main token on 2, that way, if someone goes for 1, it will just copy a bad one. Or to goes for 4. Going for 4 let you sometimes copy the adjactent 5 with a specific card.

6) Cards who let you advance your token should be played when you can avoid the artemis token next turn, so don't hesitate to keep them a long time. Same with power 4 and 8 who have more value when you can avoid artemis next turn.

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Now let's get more deep into it, and talk about strategy.

I will suppose the creature is a god, and know everything you can think.

So you need to add some randomness to what you do, else he will know what you will do : so you need to have X% chance to go on Y, Z% chance to goes on W, etc...

That's why having for all players the possibility to goes on every different place, each turn if possible, is the main goal early on.

Now your probability should depend of lots of criteria :

1) What is the place reacheable by at least one player? Early on, it's only between 1 and 5, so each place possible is already dangerous, that's why doing nothing by taking 2 or 4 have more value. Later on, with good/many players, it's between 8 and 10 different place. So using card who limit the action of the creature have more value early on (perhaps not first turn though, it depend since everybody have 5 cards), instead of later on. If one place can't be reached, and you hold that card on your discard pile, resist have way more value than usual.

2) Where can goes each player? If one player can only goes on two different place, the creature will be tented to only goes there, so you should go somewhere else. (Except particuliar case, ) if the creature goes somewhere else, it's already a mistake for her (ofc, you need ALL the others place, not the most powerfull one for this to work).

3) Example : Imagine there is two different players A and B who only hold 1, 2 and 3 card. And player C who hold 2, 5, 6. And played D who hold 1, 2, 3, 4, 7. You, player E hold 2, 5, and 7.

We will ignore the effect of different place for have a more simple situation to analyse.

We will put a % for each player on each place. Let's calculate the average % we need on each place : 100*5players/7place=71,4%.

So the goal is to have the sum of probability of all players to be at 71,4%. We can imagine to decide for the player A to put 71,4% for place 1 and 28,6% for place 2. It's possible, and it's fine if there is no power on the game. But since there are some, we still want some randomness for each player.

So let's imagine player A and B both goes for 33% 1, 33% 2, and 33% 3. It's the best we can do since they only have 3 cards left. So that mean all others players should really rarely play a 1, 2 or 3 card (if we suppose the creature can't play a single card and have one token). Only 4,8% of the time for all others players (so about 1,6% for each).

Yes, it can be really strange, but the creature should play on this place most of the time, so if the creature play somewhere else, it's good for us.

Now, let's see the rest, and calculate again everything is left for players C, D, and E :

Player A : 1 : 33,3% | 2 : 33,3% | 3 : 33,3% | -------------- | -------------- | -------------- | --------------

Player B : 1 : 33,3% | 2 : 33,3% | 3 : 33,3% | -------------- | -------------- | -------------- | --------------

Player C : -------------- | 2 : 01,6% | -------------- | -------------- | 5 : 27,0% | 6 : 71,4% | --------------

Player D : 1 : 04,8% | 2 : 01,6% | 3 : 04,8% | 4 : 71,4% | -------------- | -------------- | 7 : 17,4%

Player E : -------------- | 2 : 01,6% | -------------- | -------------- | 5 : 44,4% | -------------- | 7 : 54,0%

So here, we got something nice, it's beautiful, isn't it?

Of course, there is lots of others possibility, but by putting the same % each time I got the possibility to did it, I got something really different.

We can see a lot of things : per example, going to 4 or 6 should be done 71,4% of the time which is a pretty good number. And so, 8% of the time you should not go there two times on a row which is pretty low. This pourcentage increase when the number of players increase, and decrease when the number of players decreases.

So the creature can target player C or D, play the card 'anticipate' and have 71,4% chance to have right. That's true. But it's only one card on the game, and it's only 71,4%...

Please note this % doesn't take on account the power of some card :

Per exemple, if player D got exactly two will, player A and B should take his 4,8% into their 1.

Another exemple, we doesn't want two players to go on a 4, since the power can't be used twice. So someone should take all % of 4 if they talk in chat. (again, put some attention to some specific card, so it isn't true. But taking more % is at minimum worth it. And it's totally the case here since there is another place (6) who are already a good candidat for anticipate).

Another exemple, if someone didn't played any card, he doesn't want to play 2. It's fine at the first turn of the game, it's fine if the only player who doesn't play any card is the only player who can play 2. But otherwise, it's better to let others players took this %.

Another exemple, 1 with one will, 6 and 7 have better effect than other, so they should have a little more %, and others place should have a little less.

If you understand all that, and if your teamates do the same, it became really difficult to be the creature :}